Behind the Numbers

Federal jobs cuts: Clarity is always one year away

May 17th, 2012 · · Economy & Economic Indicators, Federal Budget

I’ve commented on federal job cuts many times before (here, here, here & here) and in the interests of flogging this particular horse (no animals were harmed in the writing of these reports), the CCPA today is releasing my latest update on the matter: Clearing away the fog: Government Estimates of job losses.  You can read a story about it in the Ottawa Citizen.

What’s new is that the government has just released the 2012-13 Reports on Plans and Priorities (RPP).  These are the departmental reports that project both employment and expenditures down to the program level for each department.  It takes some time to go through each department’s RPP, for the readers of this blog I’ve saved you the effort.

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De-growth or growth? Maybe we don’t need to figure that out

May 16th, 2012 · · Economy & Economic Indicators, Environment

There has recently been a renewed interest in the question of whether the ecological crisis means we need to see (or plan for) a stabilization or even a decline in economic growth. This week there is a major conference on degrowth in Montreal. York University’s Peter Victor has made important contributions to this debate in his book Managing Without Growth, as has Tim Jackson in his report for the UK’s Sustainable Development Commission entitled Prosperity Without Growth?. There is a burgeoning literature on this topic.

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Sask. Manufacturing Hits the Wall

May 16th, 2012 · · Economy & Economic Indicators, Employment and Labour

Premier Brad Wall was Tweeting about today’s Statistics Canada report of an uptick in national manufacturing sales in March. It is an odd report for him to trumpet, given that it found a decline in Saskatchewan’s manufacturing sales that month.

Another recent Statistics Canada report, Friday’s Labour Force Survey, indicates that Saskatchewan lost 400 manufacturing jobs in April. I had previously written that the province lost 4,600 manufacturing jobs since Wall took office. That figure is now an even 5,000.

Since Wall’s premiership began in November 2007, manufacturing employment has declined by 16% in Saskatchewan (from 32,000 to 27,000) compared to 11% nationally (from 1,998,200 to 1,786,100).

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If NSCAD were a paper mill

May 16th, 2012 · · Education, Maritime Provinces, Nova Scotia, Youth

As students in Quebec continue their 14 week strike, students in Nova Scotia continue to be reminded that post-secondary education is not a priority for the Nova Scotia government. Students and faculty at the Nova Scotia College of Art and Design (NSCAD), in particular, are bracing for severe funding cuts as the provincial government continues to target the school, which has faced financial hardship for several years. Students have already been told to expect $900 in total fee hikes, including tuition fee increases and the introduction of new fees. NSCAD will also be offering  fewer classes and making further program cuts. The university is recommending laying off 26 faculty and staff members.

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Memo to Ministers: The Issue Is Unemployment Not Job Shortages

May 16th, 2012 · · Economy & Economic Indicators, Employment and Labour

The federal government is basing labour market policy on the belief that,  as Jason Kenney pithily puts it in today’s Globe, there are “large and growing labour shortages.”  Hence moves to bring in even more temporary foreign workers at lower than average wages, and to push EI claimants into supposedly available jobs.

Not that the facts appear to matter, but it is surely notable that – even after two months of strong job growth – we still have an unemployment rate of 7.3%. The “real” unemployment rate in April – which includes involuntary part-time workers – was 10.7%, down only marginally from 11.3% a year earlier.  The “real” unemployment rate for youth is still 20.4%, down a tad from 21.2% a year ago.

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Tightening the Screws on the Unemployed

May 15th, 2012 · · Employment Insurance, Federal Budget, Uncategorized

The significant changes to the Employment Insurance (EI) program which are to be quickly implemented through Budget 2012 with very little consultation have not received enough critical attention.

First, a word on what is not in the Budget. It is disappointing, to say the least, that the government is failing to respond to the fact that less than 40% of unemployed Canadians are now qualifying for EI, well below the already low pre-recession rate.  And, for all of the talk about skills shortages in Canada, it is notable that there is NO  increased investment at all in EI supported training which would assist unemployed workers to find good jobs.

Instead, the focus is on tightening discipline over those workers who have managed to qualify for a claim.

The vast majority of regular EI claimants welcome positive efforts to assist them in a search for a new job and will not turn down reasonable employment opportunities. And there are rules now in place.

As things now stand, EI regular claimants are expected to undertake “reasonable and customary efforts to obtain suitable employment” and can be cut off benefits if they do not do so. “Suitable” employment is defined in S. 27 (2) and (3) of the Act. A job is not suitable if it is in the claimant’s occupation but offers wages and conditions less than those offered in agreements between employers and employees, or by “good” employers.  Jobs not in the claimant’s usual occupation are not suitable if they offer a lower rate of pay than the worker enjoyed previously, except that after a “reasonable interval” a claimant is expected to accept a job which offers wages and conditions matching those in agreements or offered by “good” employers.

The clear intent of these Sections is to allow for a period of job search to find a job matching previous employment wages and conditions, and to prevent the unemployed from driving down wages and conditions.

Sections 605 and 608 of the Budget Bill repeals these Sections, and give the Minister the power to set through regulation definitions of “suitable” employment for different categories of claimants, and “reasonable and customary efforts” to find a new job. These regulations will likely oblige claimants to take offers of jobs at lower wages and with worse conditions at an earlier point in their claim, and perhaps to take any available job at some point in a claim. Language in the Budget itself suggest there may be a focus on frequent claimants.  The intent may be to require claimants to move to take an available job.

Forcing workers to take the first available job is not good labour market policy since periods of job search allow for a better fit between unemployed workers and job vacancies across the country. For example, an unemployed welder in Moncton may need time to find a suitable job in Western Canada, and deserves income support from EI for the needed period of active job search.

These pending new rules are of particular concern given the proposed changes to the appeal system for claims. A new Social Security Tribunal will replace the current system of EI Boards of Referees and the Umpire.

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Defending Green Jobs at the WTO

May 14th, 2012 · · Employment and Labour, Environment, International Trade and Investment, Media, Ontario

As a partner in Blue Green Canada, the United Steelworkers have issued the following news release.

Erin Weir is an economist with the United Steelworkers union and a CCPA research associate.

WTO Called Upon to Dismiss Japan, EU Challenge to Canadian Renewable Energy Policy

Canadian NGOs and labour unions have sent an amicus curiae submission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the eve of a second hearing tomorrow into Japan’s and the European Union’s joint attack on the Ontario Green Energy Act. The groups address Canada’s failure to properly defend Ontario’s actions and call upon the WTO to respect the priority of Canada’s international climate change obligations.

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Resource Royalties: A Cure for Dutch Disease

May 11th, 2012 · · Economy & Economic Indicators, Employment and Labour, Media

I have the following op-ed in today’s Saskatoon StarPhoenix:

Royalty hike cure for Dutch disease

Premier Brad Wall calls federal NDP Leader Tom Mulcair “very, very divisive” for expressing concern that Canada’s overvalued petro-dollar is eliminating manufacturing jobs.

In reality, Wall is being divisive by exploiting this legitimate concern to fan the flames of western alienation. Saskatchewan and other provinces would benefit by collecting more revenue from non-renewable resources, as suggested by Mulcair.

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Jobs: Ontario Left Behind

May 11th, 2012 · · Employment and Labour, Media, Ontario

Statistics Canada reported today that April was another good month for the labour market. The Canadian economy added 58,200 jobs, most of which were full-time and all of which were paid positions rather than reported self-employment.

Paradoxically, official unemployment increased as more Canadians entered the labour market. This development provides an important reminder that unemployment is actually even worse than the official tally of 1.4 million.

Hundreds of thousands more have been discouraged from looking for work by the recession, but will try again when the labour market shows signs of life. The policy challenge is to create jobs not only for those officially counted as unemployed, but also for this reserve army of discouraged workers.

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Don’t Kid Yourself: We all pay for the defunding of higher education

May 9th, 2012 · · Democracy, Education, Quebec, Youth

I went to McGill in the late 80s and early 90s when tuition fees were less than $1,200 a year, so with summer jobs and some parental help I graduated from my first degree debt-free. For my MA, which I took in Ontario, I worked part-time and graduated after one year with a debt of $10,000.

By way of comparison: my partner went to university in Ontario after grants were eliminated, and when the first round of tuition fee hikes were implemented. He completed a BA and then an MA, and graduated with a debt load (and compound interest) requiring monthly payments of close to $650 for 10 years.

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